As the USA presidential election approaches, the race to draw voters has intensified. Among the many completely different constituencies the Democrats and Republicans are battling over, there may be one which stands out: the Muslim group.
Though Muslims represent roughly 1 % of the American inhabitants, they’re an vital voting bloc as a result of they’re concentrated in swing states, which are sometimes narrowly gained in elections.
On this election cycle, the Muslim group appears extra united than ever over a single political difficulty: the conflict in Gaza. Any candidate hoping to win over giant segments of Muslim voters must tackle group calls for for an finish to the bloodshed in Palestine.
That is in accordance with a brand new study printed by the Institute for Social Coverage and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Emgage and Change Analysis. It’s based mostly on a survey performed in late June and early July centered on how Muslims in three swing states – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan – intend to vote within the 2024 presidential election.
What we discovered is that President Joe Biden’s dealing with of the conflict in Gaza has turned Muslims, who in 2020 had been a few of his greatest supporters, into his sharpest detractors.
In 2020, about 65 % of Muslim voters in these states confirmed as much as solid their ballots for Biden. This assist was important to his electoral victory as a result of he gained key swing states by small margins. He gained Georgia by simply 12,000 votes, a state the place greater than 61,000 Muslims voted, and Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes, the place 125,000 Muslims voted.
Against this, in our survey, performed earlier than Biden dropped out of the presidential race, solely 12 % of respondents mentioned they might vote for him, marking a dramatic drop in assist not seen amongst every other group studied. Whereas this impacts the presidential race, it has additionally manifested in a broader disillusionment with the institution of the Democratic Get together.
The conflict on Gaza has unified Muslim voters in a means that no different difficulty has in current reminiscence. In keeping with the 2020 American Muslim Ballot performed by ISPU, healthcare (19 %), the financial system (14 %) and social justice (13 %) had been the highest voting points for Muslim voters.
Evaluate that with 2024: Throughout the partisan spectrum, the highest precedence of Muslim voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the conflict in Gaza (61 %), adopted by maintaining the US out of overseas wars (22 %).
Discount of navy help to Israel additionally garnered the assist of the overwhelming majority of Muslim voters in our examine, who, no matter partisan sentiments, all overwhelmingly see this coverage as a purpose to vote for a candidate. Whereas a conflict abroad could seem removed from the every day considerations of American Muslim voters, many see the US position – offering unconditional help and diplomatic cowl to Israel – as complicity within the continued oppression of Palestinians.
The significance of the conflict in Gaza for Muslim voters was made clear months earlier than we performed our survey. The Muslim group performed a number one position within the Uncommitted Nationwide Motion, which urged Democratic voters to vote “uncommitted” in presidential primaries of their states. The initiative managed to get greater than 700,000 Democrats to take action, making clear their demand for a change within the Biden administration’s tone and coverage on Israel and Palestine.
This dramatic Muslim migration away from Biden just isn’t a wholesale leap to the opposite aspect of the aisle, nonetheless. Muslim assist for Trump inched up from 18 % in 2020 to 22 % in 2024 in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Overwhelmingly, former Muslim supporters of Biden are transferring to 3rd events or are nonetheless undecided. Our examine discovered that just about a 3rd of Muslim voters will both vote a third-party candidate (27 %) or write in a candidate (3 %). About 17 % of Muslims mentioned they’ve but to resolve on a candidate in contrast with 6 % of most of the people.
This implies there may be nonetheless room and time for candidates to win over this important constituency. And it appears they’re making an attempt.
Not solely has Biden pulled out of the race, however Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has signalled she is distancing herself from his unflinching assist for Israel’s conflict on Gaza. In July, the vice chairman didn’t attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tackle to Congress, mentioned she is not going to be silent concerning the struggling in Gaza and made clear her assist for a ceasefire.
In August, she picked as her working mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who’s extensively considered extra sympathetic to the Palestinian trigger than short-listed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. This 12 months, Walz praised uncommitted voters in Minnesota, calling them “civically engaged” and saying, “This difficulty is a humanitarian disaster. They’ve each proper to be heard.”
And whereas Muslims had been cautiously optimistic at greatest, the Harris marketing campaign’s refusal to permit a Palestinian American to talk on the Democratic Nationwide Conference final week has soured this hope.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West have each been vocal of their assist for the individuals of Gaza. West selected Melina Abdullah, a Black Muslim girl as his working mate. Stein selected Muslim activist and educational Rudolph “Butch” Ware.
Even Republican candidate Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is reaching out to Arab American voters – a shock given the anti-Muslim rhetoric he used when campaigning in 2016. Individuals related together with his marketing campaign have been making an attempt to woo Arab voters in swing states. Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, married the son of a Lebanese American businessman, Massad Boulous, who has been making an attempt to steer Arabs in Michigan to vote for the previous president as a result of present administration’s failed coverage in Gaza.
The Muslim group’s mobilisation on Palestine has come at a heavy value for a lot of. The Council on American Islamic Relations reported an unprecedented spike in incidents of bias: a 56 % improve in experiences of Islamophobia in 2023. Anti-Palestinian racism has additionally skyrocketed, a worrying development mirrored within the shooting of three Palestinian college students in Vermont who had been sporting the keffiyeh scarf. Hundreds – a lot of them Muslim college students – had been arrested at campus protests, and plenty of had been threatened with expulsion or confronted legal costs for his or her pro-Palestinian activism at schools and universities throughout the US.
And but even with the results of taking a public stance on Palestine, Muslim voters look like undeterred this time round. Solidarity with the individuals of Gaza has emerged as the one most vital difficulty for American Muslim voters, a gaggle no candidate can afford to disregard.
The views expressed on this article are the authors’ personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.