By all quantifiable measures, Bangladesh’s now deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was essentially the most entrenched, dominant and brutal dictator the nation had seen since its independence. She jailed, exiled and eradicated most of her political friends like no different ruler in South Asia’s historical past. She introduced all of the branches of the Bangladeshi state beneath her command with such nice efficacy that in some unspecified time in the future she grew to become the state.
But, a leaderless motion of school college students challenged her with marches with pre-announced dates and venues. In a matter of weeks, these younger revolutionaries drew the nation with them into the streets to the purpose that Hasina needed to catch a helicopter to flee. They achieved one thing that established political rivals of the previous prime minister had tried for over a decade however failed persistently.
Whereas the younger revolutionaries and their supporters have a lot trigger to rejoice, the highway forward for the nation is not going to be with out challenges.
A recipe for a profitable scholar motion
The start of the top for Hasina got here as a gaggle of younger individuals began making calls for for the elimination of an unfair quota system within the distribution of civil service jobs, which was basically giving preferential therapy to the family members of her political cronies.
In organising their protests, the scholars created a distributed co-leadership construction, the place the leaders held the position of coordinators. They known as their coalition the College students Towards Discrimination motion. The coordinators got here from each private and non-private academic establishments.
What might have been quelled with some easy guarantees of future reforms was infected by crass feedback by the prime minister and brutal suppression by her safety forces. However the protest organisers had been battle-tested and knew precisely what to anticipate.
Simply six years in the past, a lot of them had participated as youngsters in one other large wave of demonstrations which centered on the nation’s lawless transportation sector. These protests erupted after a business bus ran over two college students. The automobile that brought on these deaths was owned by an organization linked to a relative of a minister.
Similar to in 2024, in 2018 the youth had been overwhelmed mercilessly by Hasina’s civilian militia, that’s, the scholar wing of the Awami League celebration. Using violence managed to suppress the protests, however not earlier than this era of revolutionaries had gained sufficient expertise in organising profitable protests, creating various command constructions, utilizing improvised communication strategies beneath web blockades and evading authorities surveillance, and many others.
All of those abilities helped them of their profitable bid to oust essentially the most ruthless dictator in Bangladesh’s historical past.
Is that this the top for Sheikh Hasina?
Hasina has needed to depart Bangladesh earlier than. Whereas she was residing in Europe, a bloody coup came about towards her father, President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975, which killed nearly all of her household. She prolonged her keep overseas and solely got here again to the nation within the early Nineteen Eighties. She rapidly gained prominence on the political scene and managed to create a cult-like following among the many members of her father’s Awami League.
Following one other navy coup in 2006, each Hasina and her foremost political rival, Khaleda Zia, had been about to lose their proper to take part in politics in Bangladesh. Zia refused to enter exile and stayed in Bangladesh beneath home arrest. Hasina took the protected exit and frolicked in Europe and the USA earlier than returning to Bangladesh. She contested the 2008 election and received with a landslide.
However her triumphant return to energy in 2008 is unlikely to be repeated. Given the large bloodshed and indiscriminate killings that came about all through her tenure, will probably be extraordinarily troublesome for the 76-year-old Hasina to revive her political fortunes this time.
Basic Waker Uz Zaman, the navy chief who ultimately requested Hasina to go away the nation, occurs to be a relative of hers by marriage. Nonetheless, the potential for a profitable counter-coup to facilitate her return to Bangladesh is unbelievable in the intervening time, given the favored resentment in direction of her rule.
The truth that no different political determine of her stature had ever needed to flee the nation going through the craze of the individuals has completely broken Hasina’s fame as an invincible chief. In any case, she was chased away by lots of of 1000’s of youths wielding sticks and bricks, whereas her males had all of the weapons and had been capturing indiscriminately. This inglorious exit will make her future comeback politically untenable.
What lies forward for Bangladesh
An interim caretaker authorities headed by one in every of Hasina’s nemeses, Dr Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s solely Nobel laureate, was sworn in on August 8, three days after Hasina fled. Dr Yunus, one of many few outstanding political figures who’s revered throughout the nation, would be the chief adviser, a title equal to prime minister.
The 16-person advisers’ panel (the equal to cupboard ministers) that he selected consists of civil society luminaries, a number of of whom had obtained worldwide accolades. Among the many advisers are two main coordinators from the ranks of the scholar motion. Dr Yunus and his chosen advisers obtained constructive media and public acceptance thus far, however they’ve a troublesome job forward.
For the time being, scholar organisers are demanding Bangladeshi politics to be cleaned of politicians related to corruption and mismanagement, not simply throughout Hasina’s rule but in addition within the governments that got here earlier than her.
The difficulty is that Hasina’s political DNA is present in each nook of the Bangladeshi state she left behind. Her hand-picked judges, bureaucrats, police and navy commanders are nonetheless working the present. Making the brand new authorities acceptable to the individuals would require a messy technique of administrative reshuffle, terminations and outright arrests of Hasina’s personnel, a course of that has already begun.
Throughout his first televised speech, Basic Zaman promised to deliver justice to the victims of indiscriminate killings by the state equipment throughout Hasina’s reign. Newly appointed advisers of the interim authorities echoed this intention. That accountability course of, nonetheless, will definitely be prolonged and it isn’t clear if it could ever be accomplished beneath their watch. Reforming the police, civil forms and navy command to revive individuals’s confidence in any future electoral course of can even take time.
Dr Yunus additionally has to handle numerous challenges in relations with Bangladesh’s two massive neighbours: India and China.
India, the nation that was the chief defender of Hasina on the world stage, is each shocked and saddened by her departure. It has safety issues concerning the attainable breakdown of regulation and order, and focused repression of the massive Bangladeshi Hindu inhabitants.
Gobinda Chandra Pramanik, one in every of Bangladesh’s most outstanding Hindu group leaders, has sought to assuage Indian fears, stating that Hindus are going through simply as a lot anarchy as the remainder of the nation in the intervening time and issues are step by step calming down as volunteers from main political events are displaying as much as shield the Hindu group.
The cupboard of advisers and main political events on the whole might have to handle Indian stress in order that personnel who posed severe nationwide safety threats to that nation don’t return to energy. That negotiation shall be sophisticated.
Hasina’s geopolitical chessboard was to counter American issues on human rights by addressing India’s safety fears and interesting with China’s enterprise pursuits. Now, the long run authorities could also be busy blunting Indian safety issues by delivering on the People’ anxieties about China. Orchestrating this geopolitical dance will profit from the broad worldwide acceptance that Dr Yunus brings, however execution and supply should be troublesome.
The principle job for the interim authorities stays organising a brand new basic election. Calls for for a tribunal to prosecute 1000’s of unlawful deaths and gross human rights violations both domestically or internationally might make issues sophisticated for the Awami League’s participation in a future nationwide election. The celebration itself may predicate its future electoral participation on situations favouring a return of Hasina’s clan, if not Hasina herself.
All different events can even should navigate authorized difficulties, given the intense felony expenses filed beneath Hasina towards her political opponents to make them ineligible for contesting elections. That features Tarique Rahman, the de facto chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Get together, who’s serving a life sentence over his alleged position in a 2004 plot to assassinate Hasina. Bangladesh’s largest Islamic political celebration, Jamaat-e-Islami, was banned on August 3 and had been barred from working in elections since 2013.
Given the immense hurdles, it’s doubtless the present interim authorities in Bangladesh will final a number of months, if not not less than a yr. Upon swearing in, the advisers gave no indication relating to the period of their tenure.
Many Bangladeshis are calling the overthrow of Hasina their second independence – the primary one being breaking away from Pakistan 53 years in the past.
There’s exuberance and hope for a greater future all over the place. However optimism needs to be cautious. Whether or not this newest revolution enshrines a fairer, freer, much less brutal and democratic Bangladesh will depend on the practicality of the calls for positioned by the revolutionaries and the dexterity of the brand new administration, relating to not solely managing them but in addition addressing pressures from exterior forces.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.