In current days, US Democrats have fretted about polls exhibiting delicate assist for Vice President Kamala Harris amongst Black voters, and particularly amongst Black males — a growth that some Democrats worry might imperil Harris’s probabilities to win in November.
On October 14, Harris launched an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” that her marketing campaign hoped would win extra assist.
US Congressman Byron Donalds, an ally of former President Donald Trump, mentioned there’s a purpose members of this core Democratic group ought to vote for Trump as a substitute.
“The massive stat — and this occurred through the first Trump administration, no one likes to speak about it: Wages adjusted for inflation have been massively up below Donald Trump for Black males, for Black households, [and] for all People,” Donalds mentioned on October 13 on the CNN programme State of the Union. “The wage hole that Democrats like to lecture about — the wage hole in 2019 was really shrinking below Donald Trump’s administration, his financial insurance policies, his power insurance policies, and his regulatory insurance policies.”
Wages for Black People and Black males did rise below Trump, however Donalds ignored that they rose 3 times quicker below Trump’s successor, President Joe Biden, even after adjusting for a interval of 40-year-high inflation on Biden’s watch. Relatively than narrowing below Trump, the Black-white wage hole widened.
“I can’t discover any manner that implies that [Donalds] is correct,” mentioned Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Motion Discussion board, a centre-right suppose tank. “No economist is pointing to this.”
Donalds’s workplace didn’t reply to an inquiry for this text.
Inflation-adjusted wages for Black males rose below Trump, then quicker below Biden
First, let’s have a look at inflation-adjusted wages.
We turned to the usual metric for inflation-adjusted wages: the median normal weekly inflation-adjusted earnings for full-time wage and wage staff, age 16 and older. To fact-check Donalds, we checked out this statistic damaged down for Black People total, Black males, white People total and white males.
This knowledge goes again to 2000, so we are going to examine the complete phrases of US Presidents George W Bush, Barack Obama, Trump and Biden.
To check these presidencies, we decreased month-to-month volatility by averaging the quarterly figures for every president to provide an total common for his time period. To make the fairest comparability, we eliminated the info for the 4 quarters of 2020 and the primary quarter of 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak interval. Throughout these quarters, federal stimulus checks spiked earnings for a lot of staff, which means that these months have been outliers from the patterns earlier than and after.
What do the numbers present?
For Black People total, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings did rise below Trump. They elevated from a mean of about $275 below Obama to about $281 below Trump, an increase of roughly 2 %. (The primary six months of Obama’s presidency included the Nice Recession, and far of his first time period coincided with a sluggish restoration.)
Beneath Biden, wages went up even increased. Inflation-adjusted weekly wages for Black People rose from $281 below Trump to $298 below Biden — a rise of about 6 %. The rise was about 3 times quicker below Biden than below Trump.
The identical sample holds for Black males.
For Black males, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings rose from a mean of about $290 below Obama to about $295 below Trump, a rise of roughly 1.8 %.
As soon as once more, wage progress was increased below Biden. Inflation-adjusted weekly wages for Black males rose from $295 below Trump to $312 below Biden, up 5.7 %.
The white-Black wage hole widened below Trump
How concerning the wage hole — the distinction in wages between white and Black People, and between white and Black males?
Utilizing the identical set of statistics, together with the cordoning off of the pandemic interval, we discovered the wage hole didn’t shrink, however widened below Trump.
Throughout Obama’s presidency, inflation-adjusted wages for Black People trailed the equal determine for white People by $74.5 on common. Beneath Trump, that common hole rose to $84.9.
Beneath Biden, the hole narrowed to $74.40.
The identical sample held for Black males.
Beneath Obama, inflation-adjusted wages for Black males trailed the equal determine for white males by $96 on common. Beneath Trump, that common hole widened to $105.30.
Beneath Biden, the hole narrowed to $92.80, smaller than below Obama.
Why have wages for Black People, together with Black males, risen quicker below Biden? Some could have benefited from a extra normal pattern amongst all races of lower-income People seeing unusually fast economic gains. With a low unemployment charge, staff have had better leverage to get raises from their employers.
Pandemic-era stimulus efforts, together with Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act, “had follow-on results of giving staff extra choices and better particular person bargaining energy, which led to increased actual wages for these decrease on the earnings scale and could also be mirrored in Black males’s increased wages and salaries below Biden than Trump,” mentioned Calvin Schermerhorn, an Arizona State College historian who research capitalism and African American inequality.
Holtz-Eakin agreed with Schermerhorn that the wage good points for lower-income staff could account for the rise below Biden, although he added that comparable good points have been occurring in 2019 below Trump, when the unemployment charge was roughly as low and the labour market was equally tight. Nevertheless, that stopped in a 12 months or so with the pandemic, whereas Biden has had a number of years for this phenomenon to happen, magnifying the good points.
Our ruling
Donalds mentioned, “Wages adjusted for inflation have been massively up below Donald Trump for Black males. … The wage hole that Democrats like to lecture about — the wage hole in 2019 was really shrinking below Donald Trump’s administration.”
For each Black People total and for Black males specifically, inflation-adjusted wages rose below Trump — however they rose about 3 times quicker below Biden.
The white-Black wage hole, each total and for males specifically, didn’t shrink below Trump. Relatively, it widened, earlier than narrowing below Biden.
In abstract, Donalds’s assertion was largely false.